Triple Point in IA
Posted by JAC on 6/6/2009, 6:04 pm


Good cap all day about to bust with good CAPE underneath and strong helicity downstream.











MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0960
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0312 PM CDT SAT JUN 06 2009
 
  AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SE IA...NW MO INTO CNTRL IA
 
  CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
 
  VALID 062012Z - 062215Z
 
  TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT.
  UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST...BUT A WW COULD BECOME NECESSARY PRIOR TO
  22-23Z.
 
  STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION APPEARS FOCUSED NEAR AND
  JUST EAST OF A FRONTAL WAVE ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... WHERE
  SURFACE HEATING AND INCREASING DEW POINTS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
  BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION.  RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MIXED LAYER
  CAPE IS NOW IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG...WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAKENING
  MID-LEVEL INHIBITION...PARTICULARLY FOR BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS NEAR
  THE OMAHA AREA.  THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO WEAKEN FURTHER DURING THE
  NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH THE SUPPRESSION OF THE THERMAL RIDGE NEAR 700
  MB...ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WITHIN THE
  STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.  AT THE SAME
  TIME...THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WILL MAINTAIN
  LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...AND THIS FORCING MAY SUPPORT THE
  INITIATION OF AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT TOWARD THE 23-00Z
  TIME FRAME.  IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH 50+
  KT 500 MB FLOW...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
  CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.
 
  THE PRECISE LOCATION OF STORM INITIATION IS STILL NOT CLEAR...BUT IT
  SEEMS MOST PROBABLE EAST OF THE OMAHA AREA INTO THE DES MOINES
  VICINITY.  WHILE THIS ACTIVITY MAY INITIALLY FORM ABOVE A SHALLOW
  WEAK NEAR-SURFACE STABLE LAYER...SIZABLE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL
  HODOGRAPHS NEAR A 30-40 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT
  POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
 
  ..KERR.. 06/06/2009
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Triple Point in IA - JAC, 6/6/2009, 6:04 pm
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