A Wave to Watch
Posted by JAC on 6/13/2009, 6:34 am


A new tropical wave is entering the East Carib and firing MCS convection north of the SA coast as it hits some shear.

It seems to be amplifying.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

Models don't show development of this yet but I thought I mention this since GFS does show an interesting shear forecast.

What is currently happening is that there are two small TUTTs at:
1)  27.5N 72.5W
2)  27.5N 55W

This creates a Sub-Equatorial Ridge (SER) between them and to their south.

WV shows this nicely with UL winds rotating CW in the East Carib along an axis at 65W.

A wave under a ridge has possibilities for development.

On top of it, GFS shear forecast shows the ridge moving west with the wave and becoming an anti-cyclone in the West Carib in 72 hours.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2009061300&field=850-200mb+Shear&hour=Animation

Something to keep an eye on.













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A Wave to Watch - JAC, 6/13/2009, 6:34 am
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