Re: Convection builds in a little more this morning
Posted by JAC on 6/16/2009, 9:09 am
I am starting to look at the visible loop and see some cauliflowers pop thru the cirrus clouds.

I think what has been holding this back is that surface winds are still running due west just about everywhere I look.

But, the two closest buoys are showing pressures dropping.

CMC and GFS show initialization now, but looks like they will throw this into the Yucatan shortly.

The High Pressure over TX is dropping somewhat, so it may not be a due west track, but maybe more NW.

However, looking at the shear forecast, if this does get into the GOM; it will run into higher shear.

So, with no real surface LLC and a forecast that will shortly take it over land or into a hostile GOM; that is probably why NHC is not giving it much attention.



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Keep an eye out North of Honduras - JAC, 6/15/2009, 9:48 am
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