Strong Negative-Tilted Shortwave for Great-Lakes & Ontario this Weekend
Posted by JAC on 6/24/2009, 8:42 am


Strong jet dog-leg.

992mb surface-low.















DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0353 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2009
 
  VALID 271200Z - 021200Z
 
  ...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT
  LAKES REGION SATURDAY...
 
  HIGHEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN
  FOCUSED ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THIS WEEK
  INTO THE WEEKEND.  AND THIS...COUPLED WITH LESSER CONCERNS ABOUT
  STRONGLY CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR /COMPARED TO THE NORTHERN
  PLAINS ON FRIDAY/...SUPPORTS GREATER CONFIDENCE IN THE RISK FOR
  SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...IN ASSOCIATION
  WITH THE PASSAGE OF A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE.  GUIDANCE SEEMS
  TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATELY
  STRONG WIND FIELDS /50-70 KT AT 500 MB...30-40 KT AT 850 MB/ WITH
  THIS FEATURE...WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WELL ORGANIZED
  DAMAGING WIND PRODUCING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IN THE PRESENCE
  OF MODERATE TO STRONG POTENTIAL INSTABILITY.  THEREAFTER...MEDIUM
  RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES MARKEDLY CONCERNING AMPLIFICATION WITHIN THE
  LARGE-SCALE FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN
  UNCERTAIN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
 
  ..KERR.. 06/24/2009



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Strong Negative-Tilted Shortwave for Great-Lakes & Ontario this Weekend - JAC, 6/24/2009, 8:42 am
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