| ...NERN CONUS TO CENTRAL APPALACHIAN REGION... SCATTERED TSTMS IN BANDS AND CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF SFC FRONTAL ZONE...INVOF PREFRONTAL TROUGHS AS WELL AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT BY PRIOR CONVECTION. MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING GUSTS FROM FORWARD-PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES OF VARYING SIZES AND SHAPES. ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY EWD FROM NRN MID-ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND AND SEWD TO SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL APPALACHIANS REGION...LATTER BEING BENEATH STG NLY COMPONENT OF MID-UPPER FLOW BEHIND TROUGH. WITHIN BROAD OUTLOOK CORRIDOR...ONE OR TWO RELATIVELY DENSE/CONCENTRATED AREAS OF SVR WIND ARE LIKELY...FOCUSED NEAR MESOBETA SCALE BOUNDARIES AND POCKETS OF STG/SUSTAINED HEATING. ATTM...HOWEVER...IT IS TOO SOON TO DELINEATE SUCH CORRIDORS. AREAS OF MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG -- SUPPORTED BY SFC DEW POINTS MID 60S TO LOW 70S AND JUXTAPOSED WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS -- ALSO INDICATE LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY OVER PORTIONS MID-ATLANTIC AND PERHAPS NEW ENGLAND. CONDITIONAL TORNADO POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS OVER SERN NY/NERN NJ ACROSS PORTIONS SRN/SWRN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE SUFFICIENT VEERING/STRENGTHENING OF FLOW WITH HEIGHT AND SOMEWHAT ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE EVIDENT IN PROGS. KINEMATIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL THREAT...IN VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH RELATIVELY LOW LCL. ANY CELLS THAT CAN MAINTAIN RELATIVELY DISCRETE CHARACTER MAY POSE TORNADO THREAT. SOME PORTION OF THIS AREA MAY WARRANT HIGHER TORNADO PROBABILITIES IF MESOSCALE FOCI CAN BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN NEXT COUPLE OUTLOOKS. HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 451 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009 ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011- NYZ067>081-270900- LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY- LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY- NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS- SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY- MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM- FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM- SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-NORTHERN FAIRFIELD- NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON- SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX- SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-BERGEN-EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX- HUDSON-UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER- SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX- RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-NASSAU- NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK- SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- 451 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. TORNADOES...THOUGH LESS LIKELY...ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND INTERIOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO REPORT ANY WIND DAMAGE...HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. && |