Very quiet---Looking at tea leaves--maybe Bay of Campeche next week??
Posted by
jack ruby on 7/24/2009, 7:17 pm
Huge and powerful upper level low continues to dominate the Western Atlantic. Waves coming off Africa still don't show sufficient strength. All signs point to continued quiet. But if there is to be a chance for development, I might look toward the W Gulf of Mexico next week. It seems to have the best chance of positve upper level conditions in the Atlantic Basin (far away from effects of Upper Level Low in Atlantic, or continued dry air coming off the African Coast). Matter of fact upper level high may extend over the central Gulf next week. Depends on how deep layer this is, will need moisture underneath. But with such hostile conditions in the Atlantic, it may be the best chance. Here's something from the Tropical Discussion at NHC. Next week forecast for more of a SE flow at the surface across the Gulf, this tends to juice the atmosphere.
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS CENTERED ALONG THE E/CENTRAL MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N98W AND IS
PROVIDING UPPER DIFFLUENCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ACROSS THE WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-23N W OF 94W.
ELSEWHERE...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND SURFACE RIDGING IS PROMOTING
FAIR WEATHER. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
EWD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING SE RETURN FLOW ACROSS
THE WRN GULF BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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Very quiet---Looking at tea leaves--maybe Bay of Campeche next week?? - jack ruby, 7/24/2009, 7:17 pm
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