TC Formation Alert
Posted by JAC on 7/30/2009, 10:14 am
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/cphc/ WTPN21 PHNC 301400 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.4N 138.2W TO 12.9N 145.5W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AT 301200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 138.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.7N 139.0W, APPROXIMATELY 1240 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU, HAWAII. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTION AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR INCREASED DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE LLCC. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER HAWAII IS HELPING TO ENHANCE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE LLCC, FUELING THE RECENT INCREASE IN CONVECTION. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS CURRENTLY LOW OVER THE LLCC, FURTHER HELPING WITH THE INCREASE IN INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 311400Z.// NNNN |
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In this thread:
HI needs to watch 97E - JAC, 7/29/2009, 9:59 pm
- TD 06E - JAC, 7/30/2009, 10:10 am
- Re: TD 06E - JAC, 7/30/2009, 2:43 pm
- Some relevant comments and one not so--IE OT - Mike_Doran, 7/30/2009, 2:58 pm
- Current Cone - JAC, 7/30/2009, 10:54 am
- With TUTT dying, this could get bumped up - JAC, 7/30/2009, 10:17 am
- Re: TD 06E - JAC, 7/30/2009, 2:43 pm
- TUTT dissipates by Friday - JAC, 7/30/2009, 9:02 am
- Kicked up to Orange Box - TD Forming - JAC, 7/30/2009, 7:57 am
- Organizing nicely - JAC, 7/30/2009, 7:40 am
- Last deep convection could be a possible hot-tower - JAC, 7/30/2009, 7:43 am
- Core - JAC, 7/30/2009, 6:57 am
- Heating Up, Consolidating, Strong Anti-cyclone - JAC, 7/30/2009, 11:32 am
- GFDL: Deep Warm Core going just south of HI - JAC, 7/30/2009, 6:53 am
- BAMD only one showing a Big-Island Landfall - JAC, 7/30/2009, 9:07 am
- Strong overshooting cu's - JAC, 7/29/2009, 11:22 pm
- LLC & Steering Winds - JAC, 7/29/2009, 10:21 pm
- Currently strong Anti-cyclone over 97E & strong TUTT over HI - JAC, 7/29/2009, 10:04 pm
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