Erika to affect PR and Northern Leewards
Posted by
Jake on 9/2/2009, 12:28 am
Erika has been gradually strengthening during the evening. Her cloud structure is more symmetrical and outflow has become more established in all quads. This is especially the case on the western quad, as S-SW shear from the upper level highs displacement have now become more co-located with the COC and CDO.
I suspect that the slowing tonight of the forward speed is mainly due to the reformation of the center bit further south near the strongest mesoscale convective burst. This and the expansion of the convection towards the south increases the affects of stronger weather across PR-Northern Leewards. As focus here is not the center, but the winds gusts in squalls. I wouldn't be surprised if the center came closer to these areas than forecasted and heavy squalls bring 50-60mph winds across these areas.
I will not go long range on the track as its still to early to know where Erika will go. But, I feel she will move very close to PR-Northern Leewards and be located near the SE Bahamas in a few days, as a mid-level ridge should steer her on a mostly WNW track during the next several days.
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Erika to affect PR and Northern Leewards - Jake, 9/2/2009, 12:28 am Post A Reply
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