Fred's Trek West
Posted by JAC on 9/11/2009, 7:10 am

If Fred can survive to the 50-yard line & stay more south, he could be good to go.  

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2009091100&field=850-200mb+Shear&hour=Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2009091106&field=850-200mb+Shear&hour=Animation

Shear & SST's get a lot better after that.

SHIPS is forecasting crazy shear which I am not buying.

Azore-High is building strong and Bermuda-High looks to be building back in later.

http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/WTVT/custom/models/nogaps.html

http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/WTVT/custom/models/gfs.html

http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/WTVT/custom/models/ecmwf.html

Successive GFS runs are keeping him deeper.

Gotta keep the ITCZ feed going to survive.

Stay tuned - may not be all she wrote on Fred yet.




http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/
On that page in the section titled "North Atlantic Basin" look for "GFS ensemble track guidance". To the right of that, click "frame 1".















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Fred's Trek West - JAC, 9/11/2009, 7:10 am
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