Discussion
Posted by
JAC on 10/23/2009, 10:28 am
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 517 AM AST FRI OCT 23 2009
DISCUSSION...THE CAPECO/GULF TANK FARM EXPLOSION AND FIRE IN SOUTHERN CATANO HAS DOMINATED THE WEATHER FOCUS THIS SHIFT. WINDS ARE SOUTHEAST AT LOWER LEVELS DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE AND NEARLY CALM AT THE SURFACE. THIS SITUATION WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES CAN OVERCOME THE GENERAL FLOW AND FORCE SOME OF THE SMOKE PLUME BACK INTO NORTH CENTRAL PUERTO RICO. TIMING... DURATION AND WIND SPEEDS OF THE SHIFT FROM THE GENERAL FLOW TO THE SEA BREEZE CONDITIONS ARE UNCERTAIN AND WINDS MAY VACILLATE BETWEEN THE TWO CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY AS THE GENERAL FLOW FIGHTS THE INFLUENCE OF THE SEA BREEZE. WINDS WILL CARRY THE PLUME OUT TO SEA AT LEVELS ABOVE ABOUT 3 TO 5 THOUSAND FEET...BUT DUE TO UNSTABLE CONDITIONS SMOKE MAY RISE TO ABOVE 15 THOUSAND FEET FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE DAY. SMOKE SHOULD DISPERSE WIDELY AFTER ABOUT 10 AM AST. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BUT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THE NORMAL DIURNAL SHOWER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES PAST PUERTO RICO MODELS INDICATE BETTER MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AND BETTER DYNAMICS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
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In this thread:
Environmental Effects of Fire in Refinery -
ricksterpr,
10/23/2009, 8:04 am- Re: Environmental Effects of Fire in Refinery - ricksterpr, 10/30/2009, 4:02 pm
- ricksterpr you asked about - hanna, 10/24/2009, 12:55 am
- Photo Report from Local Paper - ricksterpr, 10/23/2009, 3:15 pm
- SAT & Radar Views - JAC, 10/23/2009, 12:01 pm
- Special Weather Statement - JAC, 10/23/2009, 10:23 am
- Discussion - JAC, 10/23/2009, 10:28 am
- Blast forces evacuations as firefighters race to prevent additional flare-ups - JAC, 10/23/2009, 10:10 am
- Heavy Lines on Gas Stations - ricksterpr, 10/23/2009, 9:15 am
- San Juan TV - JAC, 10/23/2009, 8:42 am
- Photos - JAC, 10/23/2009, 8:19 am
- Re: Photos - Hurricane Ranger, 10/23/2009, 8:33 am
- How close are you? - JAC, 10/23/2009, 8:13 am
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