WESTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95W
Posted by BP31 on 10/24/2009, 11:31 am
| SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 857 PM CHST SAT OCT 24 2009 GUZ001>004-PMZ151>154-250700- GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-MARIANAS COASTAL WATERS- 857 PM CHST SAT OCT 24 2009 ...DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS... A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS NEAR 10N160E IS STEADILY DEVELOPING AND MAY INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTER...BASED ON SATELLITE DATA...ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 MPH. WEATHER FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN MARIANAS. SINCE OCTOBER AND NOVEMBER ARE THE PEAK MONTHS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN MICRONESIA...RESIDENTS OF THE MARIANAS ARE ADVISED TO CLOSELY MONITOR ITS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WEAK DISTURBANCES CAN QUICKLY INTENSIFY DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THIS PART OF THE WESTERN PACIFIC CALLED TYPHOON ALLEY. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL UPDATE THIS INFORMATION AS NEEDED BASED ON FORECAST INFORMATION FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER. $$ MILLER FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.2N 162.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 160.8E, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH INCREASED CONVECTION THAT HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM POHNPEI INDICATE A 24-HOUR PRESSURE FALL OF 1 MB. A WESTERLY WIND BURST LOCATED ALONG THE EQUATOR IS ENHANCING THE WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER A REGION OF FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE, HOWEVER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS ALSO MODERATE TO HIGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED CONVECTION AND CONSOLIDATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR. 95W NRL.  |
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