DMAX help 97L to organize - but slowly. Now Red Box
Posted by JAC on 11/4/2009, 7:02 am





Cells topping 55K-ft inside the Outer-ADT bullseye.

So far, looks like one small hot tower fired for about 1 hour yesterday afternoon.

Upper air looks very good with strong anti-cyclone overhead and UL jet along 15N supporting a poleward outflow channel.

Core has heat up but is very broad.
Great looking inversion.
The large radius of the core will cause 97L to spin up more slowly than is typical of a TC.

Also, being farther south than most TCs, at 11N, Coriolis force is relatively weak which will also spin 97L more slowly.

It looks like it will spin up here for the next day or two.

The thing to watch for if it takes a due north track for a period of 24 hrs or more.
Here, secondary Coriolis forces come in play and could cause 97L to strongly intensify.
At that point shear or SST's would not affect intensification.



















107
In this thread:
DMAX help 97L to organize - but slowly. Now Red Box - JAC, 11/4/2009, 7:02 am
< Return to the front page of the: message board | monthly archive this page is in
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.