IDA Late Night Analysis
Posted by
Jake on 11/7/2009, 12:39 am
Ida appears to be re-strengthening. Microwave imagery is starting to show a more well developed LLC and satellite imagery shows a better presentation of the core and cloud structure. The core/LLC have suffered some deterioration during the passage over Nica and Hond during the last 24-36hrs.
However, since the center emerged over the NW Caribbean waters her structure has been improving throughout the evening. This trend will continue, as strengthening is likely over waters with very high oceanic heat content and deep layer moisture.
One reason that Ida has not strengthened more rapidly tonight apart from her center moving over land, is that 96E's circulation is indirectly affecting Ida's southerly inflow. This feature is drawing deep tropical moisture away and causing a disruption across the southern semicircle. But, this low will be moving inland tonight and thus will weaken the circulation.
Finally, Ida should be approaching hurricane strength by tomorrow evening, as shear although modest is anticyclonic and she's moving north around 7-8mph. This will reduce the southerly mid vertical shear and allow her to take advantage of a very dynamical NW Caribbean. Wouldn't be surprised if she reaches 90-100mph before she nears western Cuba, as I feel she will track bit further east. |
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