| Here is what the Tallahassee Forecasters think: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 910 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009 ...TROPICAL STORM IDA SHOULD BRING RAIN...INCREASING WINDS AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TO LOCAL AREA DURING THE EARLY WORK WEEK... .SYNOPSIS... AT 9 PM EST...SKIES WERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT WITH MAINLY CIRRUS CLOUDS. TEMPS RANGED FROM MID 50S NORTH TO LOW-MID 50S COAST. 24 HR TEMP/DEW POINT COMPARISONS INDICATED THAT LOCAL AIRMASS RUNNING 4-8 DEGREES WARMER AND WETTER THAN SAME TIME YESTERDAY. WINDS WERE GENERALLY CALM TO LIGHT NLY. AT UPPER LEVELS... THE LARGE SCALE CONUS PATTERN HIGHLIGHTED BY A TROUGH OVER DESERT SW/OLD MEX WITH A CUTOFF LOW WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN TX. OTHERWISE...BROAD AND GENERALLY DEAMPLIFIED RIDGING ACROSS U.S. A BROAD BELT OF FAST WSW FLOW IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE FROM THE WRN CONUS INTO ERN CANADA...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SMALL-SCALE IMPULSES PROGRESSING QUICKLY ENEWD. A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE SRN U.S. WITH AN AREA OF HIGHER HEIGHTS. LOCALLY...THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS THRU REST OF WEEKEND THROUGH SHORT TERM...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE MID-UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND SW TROUGH TO BOTH SHIFT EWD ALLOWING IDA TO CONTINUE ON A GENERAL NWD TRACK. BY SUN MORNING...RIDGE AXIS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE GULF/WRN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW A WARM UP AS THE E FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SE DURING THE PERIOD. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE SW AND W SUN TONIGHT BUT ESPECIALLY BETWEEN MON AND TUE WITH THE BEST LIFT MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE WELL AHEAD OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NWD AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. AT LOWER LEVELS... ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE NC COAST DOWN ATLC SEABOARD AND THEN SWWD THRU LA AND INTO EAST TX. THIS REFLECTED IN 00Z REGIONAL RAOBS...I.E. TAE WITH 0.41 INCH PWAT. COLD FRONT FROM ONTARIO SWWD ACROSS SRN NE AND INTO COLORADO. UNDER INFLUENCE OF UPPER TROUGH OVER NEXT 3 DAYS.. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SEWD AND INTO CARIB AND IMPACT TROPICAL STORMS IDA (SEE BELOW.) TROPICAL STORM IDA... DURING SAT EVE...IDA WAS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AND MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT IDA WILL REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS AS IT TRAVERSES THE VERY WARM CARIBBEAN WATERS. HOWEVER...AS IT ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY...IT WILL ENCOUNTER A LESS CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT AS WATER TEMPS COOL AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE HOSTILE. IDA IS THEN FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...AS IT ENTRAINS ABUNDANT MID LAYER DRY AIR FROM THE WEST AND BECOMES STRETCHED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG A FRONT. BOTH GFS/ECMWF AGREE IN THE APPROACHING H5 TROUGH (PROVIDING DYNAMICS) AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT (PROVIDING LIFT) WILL PICK UP THE MOISTURE FROM IDA BEGINNING MONDAY AND STREAMING IT NORTHEAST ACROSS CWA ESPECIALLY MON AFTN INTO TUES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW REMNANT OF IDA NEARING THE FL PANHANDLE COASTS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SO...LOCAL AREA WILL STILL RECEIVE AMPLE RAIN AND WINDS UP TO GALE FORCE ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF. WE EXPECT AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF RAIN (STORM TOTAL FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA...MAINLY WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER BUT WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS THAT COULD BE DOUBLE OR TRIPLE THIS. ORIGINATING AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM...THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO CAPES AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SURFACE BASED LIFTED WITH A SHALLOW STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECTED NORTH OF A DEVELOPING FRONT.SO SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY OVER LAND AND TSTMS CHANCES LOW...AND WILL BE FORECAST ONLY FOR COASTAL COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. && .SHORT TERM...(REST OF TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY) A MORE ESE WIND HAS ALLOWED DEW POINTS TO CLIMB ACROSS THE AREA SO EXPECTING LOWS TO BE MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT. THIS REFLECTED IN ABOVE AIRMASS CONTRASTS. EXPECT LOWS FROM MIN 40S NORTH TO MID 50S COAST. SOME PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE LATE ESPECIALLY SE ALA/SRN GA AND SE BIG BEND AS REFLECTED IN SREF PROGS. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. && .MARINE... SEAS ACROSS WELL OFFSHORE BUOYS ALREADY AT 6-8 FEET AND WINDS APPROACHING 20 KNOTS. SO INHERITED SCA FOR OFFSHORE PANHANDLE WATERS JUSTIFIED. A GALE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED BY MID SHIFT...AS GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY (OR EVEN A WATCH/WARNING) AND A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MAY ALSO BE NEEDED. THE LATEST EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE FORECASTS A SURGE UP TO 2 FEET AT APALACHICOLA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT OUR LOCAL SLOSH MODEL FOR A NORTHWARD-MOVING TROPICAL STORM IS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER. && |