Cat3
Posted by JAC on 11/15/2009, 10:06 am


REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 13.5S 69.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ANJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 820 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 01S HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATE
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IS CURRENTLY MAINTAINING A 25 NM ROUND
EYE AND A 150 NM DIAMETER CORE OF INTENSE, DEEP CONVECTION. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATE EXCELLENT
RADIAL OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
SYSTEM. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED BY 50
KNOTS UNDER THESE VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE HIGHER DVORAK
ESTIMATES WHICH RANGE FROM 90 (KNES) TO 102 KNOTS (PGTW, FMEE). TC
01S HAS ACCELERATED SLIGHTLY AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THROUGH TAU 48. THIS STR IS SHIFTING FROM
A WEST-EAST ORIENTATION TO A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTATION DUE
TO AN APPROACHING DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH (NOW OVER MADAGASCAR).
THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE (ECMWF, GFDN, NOGAPS, TC-LAPS,
WBAR) SUPPORT A RE-CURVE SCENARIO WITH THE SYSTEM ACCELERATING
AND UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS EARLY AS TAU 96. THE
UKMO AND THE GFS ARE THE OUTLIERS AND ARE TRACKING TC 01S MORE
WESTWARD TOWARD PORT LOUIS DESPITE INDICATING A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION AS THE RE-CURVE MODELS. IN FACT, THE GFS AND UKMO MODELS
STEER THE SYSTEM PERPENDICULAR TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW AND ARE
THEREFORE CONSIDERED SUSPECT. THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE RE-CURVE
SCENARIO. TC 01S IS FORECAST TO PEAK IN INTENSITY WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER SST,
MARGINAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM QUICKLY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z AND 161500Z.//
NNNN


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First TC of the Southern Hemisphere 2010 Season - JAC, 11/14/2009, 12:49 pm
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