Super Typhoon Nidia peaks out at 160 knots
Posted by JAC on 11/25/2009, 10:41 pm
   MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 26W (NIDA) WARNING NR 17// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 26W (NIDA) HAS MAINTAINED A SYMMETRICAL STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS MULTIPLE SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING VERY TIGHTLY INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED 20-NM EYE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS DERIVED FROM THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T7.0 FROM PGTW AND KNES, AND A T7.5 FROM RJTD. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE OVERHEAD. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THE EXTENDED TRACK FORECAST HAS CHANGED TO REFLECT A RECURVATURE SCENARIO. B. STY NIDA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES AN AREA OF HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RELATIVELY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AFTER TAU 48, IT IS EXPECTED TO CREST THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN RECURVING TO THE NORTHEAST. A 26/12Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM CHICHIJIMA (NEAR 27N 142E) SHOWS DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, SUPPORTING A RECURVATURE SCENARIO. C. AFTER TAU 72, STY NIDA WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BECOMING A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM BY TAU 120. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF UKMET AND JGSM. BOTH SOLUTIONS INDICATE A DRASTIC DEVIATION TO THE THE LEFT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE TOWARDS THE PHILIPPINES AFTER TAU 24.// NNNN |
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In this thread:
- Impressive RI on 11/25, 195 knot Gusts - JAC, 11/26/2009, 7:35 am
- Re: Impressive RI on 11/25, 195 knot Gusts - hanna, 11/26/2009, 11:07 pm
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