Tropical Cyclone Laurence
Posted by JAC on 12/12/2009, 9:57 pm
 WTXS21 PGTW 122200 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/112151ZDEC09// REF/B/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/122052ZDEC09// NARR/REF A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS.// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.3S 129.7E TO 13.3S 125.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AT 122030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.3S 129.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 131.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.3S 128.8E, APPROXIMATELY 130 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THERE HAS BEEN A WEAKENING OF THE WELL ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAD BEEN APPARENT 24 HOURS AGO. THE LLCC APPEARS TO BE LOCATED OVER WATER AT THIS TIME AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN ALONG THE COASTAL REGION. CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED OVER THE LLCC, AND HAS EXPANDED RADIALLY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, WHICH IS PROVIDING FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 132200Z. 4. SEE REF B FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT LOCATED NEAR 8.2S 84.5E.// NNNN |
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In this thread:
Cyclone season has not... - hanna, 12/12/2009, 1:00 pm
- Cyclone Threatens to Form off Australia's West; PTTEP Evacuates Workers - JAC, 12/12/2009, 9:50 pm
- Relocated - Maybe Cat1 at Landfall - JAC, 12/14/2009, 7:06 am
- Cyclone alert for northwest Australia - JAC, 12/13/2009, 2:07 pm
- Darwin drenched by Cyclone Laurence - JAC, 12/13/2009, 12:21 pm
- Offical Forecast may be Underestimated - JAC, 12/13/2009, 11:01 am
- Firing Numerous Hot Towers - JAC, 12/13/2009, 1:36 pm
- Tower Firing for 2hrs + - JAC, 12/13/2009, 2:03 pm
- Very Impressive Flare-Up - JAC, 12/13/2009, 1:50 pm
- Firing Numerous Hot Towers - JAC, 12/13/2009, 1:36 pm
- Textbook Core - JAC, 12/13/2009, 2:57 am
- Re: Tropical Cyclone Laurence - JAC, 12/12/2009, 10:05 pm
- Great UL Support - JAC, 12/12/2009, 10:01 pm
- Offical Forecast may be Underestimated - JAC, 12/13/2009, 11:01 am
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