2010 Predictions? (I say: 15TS, 10H, 5MH)
Posted by Target on 12/28/2009, 5:08 am
| What? Is everyone feeling burned after all the failed predictions for last year? Did I miss everyone's predictions for 2010? Hmmm ... It looks like El Nino kicked most of the hurricanes out of the Caribbean this year. But the ENSO Quick Look page suggests that El Nino may be gone by August 2010. http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/QuickLook.html I found a forecast on Wiki: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Pre-season_forecasts Klotzbach's (Dr Gray's old team) December 9th, 2009 forecast for 2010: 13.5TS 7H 4MH (they forecast an above average season) I averaged their BS ranges. (those cheaters...) But I sort of like their numbers. I'm betting ENSO will be about neutral. There's a lot of heat below the surface of the Caribbean to fuel the big ones. I think I am going to risk getting burned again by sticking to the same numbers I forecast last year: 15TS, 10H, 5MH I know, I'm very boring..., but I have limited data to develop a forecast. And besides, why go into more detail when El Nino could just as easily stay active until June and screw everything up?        (hosted by http://www.flickr.com ) Hansen's chart of the northern hemisphere temperature for 2009 suggests that the phase for my graph for future forecasts of hurricanes could be shifted to far to the right. The AMO cycle may still be about 62 years but it may peak a few years earlier than the 2012 my old chart suggests.  image from: http://feww.wordpress.com/2009/12/09/decadal-temp-avg-up-by-74-pct-on-1990s/ |
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- Re: 2010 Predictions? (I say: 15TS, 10H, 5MH) - CypressTX, 12/28/2009, 5:49 pm
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