Re: HPC Discussion - ...MAJOR WINTER STORM ANTICIPATED
Posted by
Fred on 2/3/2010, 8:45 am
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 759 AM EST WED FEB 03 2010 VALID 12Z SUN FEB 07 2010 - 12Z WED FEB 10 2010 ...MAJOR WINTER STORM OVER A PORTION OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE FRI/SAT...
THERE ARE ENOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCES HANDLING VORTICES IN A MEAN TROF OVER CENTRAL AND ERN CANADA TO USE A SIMPLIFIED BETTER AGREED UPON ENS MEANS FOR PROGS AND H500S. DAYS 6 AND 7 HAVE CLOSER SIMILARITY BETWEEN THE OP GFS AND THE 00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN AND A LAGGED AVERAGE FORECAST OF BOTH GFS AND ECMWF. HPC PROG BLENDS INCORPORATE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS ENS MEANS THRU DAY 5 MON AND A BLEND OF 00Z OP GFS AND THE 00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN DAYS 6 AND 7 TUES/WED.
MID ATLC OFFSHORE STORM DAY 3 SAT HAS A GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD. A VERY HEAVY EVEN CRIPPLING SNOW IS LOOKING LIKELY OVER A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA FROM SRN NJ/SOUTHEAST PA/DE/MD/NRN VA/ERN PANHANDLE DAY 3 FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NRN STREAM JET WITH A BRIEF COUPLING OF THE SRN STREAM LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION WITH VERY STRONG VERTICAL VELOCITIES. OVERALL MODEL QPF CONSENSUS AVERAGE 1-1.5 LIQUID EQUIVILENT OVER AREAS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW INDICATES POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1-2 FOOT RANGE. GALE FORCE ONSHORE WINDS CONT ALONG THE DELMARVA/NJ COAST SAT AS A DEEPENING SFC LOW EXITS THE NC SOUNDS AND MOVES EAST OF THE VA CAPES. THERE ARE SIMILARITIES TO THE FEB 11-12 1983 STORM WITH A MORE SUPRESSED NRN EDGE TO THE PCPN AND AS FAR SOUTH WITH COLD AIR. VERY COLD AIR PUSHING SWD THRU THE PLAINS WILL ALSO COVER ERN CONUS AFTER THE LOW MOVES EWD WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THRU THE NEXT WEEK. SEE LOCAL NWS ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS AND HPC WINTER WEATHER GUIDANCE.
MID LEVEL SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE MAY INDUCE ANOTHER GULF COAST LOW MID WEEK WITH ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER THREAT ALONG ITS NORTH SIDE THRU THE SRN PLAINS/TN VALLEY AND MID ATLC REGION MID WEEK.
MDT/HVY PCPN ACROSS CA SAT AND SUN WITH ONLY MUCH WEAKER SYSTEMS STAYING OFFSHORE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ROSENSTEIN
Also have heard of a possible big storm next tue-wed |
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In this thread:
Possible Significant Storm Friday - IN to VA to FL -
JAC,
2/2/2010, 3:59 pm- Winter Storm Warning up for DC - near Blizzard Conditions - JAC, 2/4/2010, 10:31 am
- Re: Possible Significant Storm Friday - IN to VA to FL - nyjames11955, 2/4/2010, 8:23 am
- Could be Major Blizzard for Delmarva & NJ - JAC, 2/4/2010, 6:18 am
- Deep Moisture Convergence starting up in NW GOM - JAC, 2/4/2010, 5:46 am
- FL dodges severe-weather - JAC, 2/4/2010, 5:40 am
- Winter-Storm Watches going up - JAC, 2/3/2010, 3:40 pm
- Re: Possible Significant Storm Friday - IN to VA to FL - Fred, 2/3/2010, 3:10 pm
- GFS pushing genesis way west to NW GOM - JAC, 2/3/2010, 2:04 pm
- Re: Possible Significant Storm Friday - IN to VA to FL - Fred, 2/3/2010, 9:47 am
- HPC Discussion - ...MAJOR WINTER STORM ANTICIPATED - JAC, 2/3/2010, 7:07 am
- Heaviest Snow just west of DC - JAC, 2/3/2010, 6:49 am
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