Another 8 to 10 mb drop
Posted by JAC on 2/10/2010, 12:49 pm



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0116
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  1120 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010
 
  AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MA...RI...CT...SRN NY...NJ...SERN PA...DE...ERN
  MD...DC
 
  CONCERNING...BLIZZARD
 
  VALID 101720Z - 102145Z
 
  AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR WILL GRADUALLY EVOLVE
  NEWD FROM THE MID-ATLC TO SRN NEW ENG THROUGH 00Z. BLIZZARD
  CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
  ERN MD/DE AND FARTHER NE ACROSS CSTL NY/CT/RI/SRN MA.
 
  17Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 981 MB CYCLONE AROUND 80 SE
  ACY. 12Z GFS/NAM AND 15Z RUC FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT IN THAT
  CONTINUED DEEPENING AND SLOW EWD MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW WILL OCCUR AS
  POWERFUL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS OFF THE DELMARVA CST. THIS WILL
  LEAD TO STRONGER LOWER-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL/ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
  MID-LEVEL DCVA ASCENT PIVOTING E/NEWD ACROSS CSTL SECTIONS OF THE
  MID-ATLC TO SRN NEW ENG. AS SUCH...OBSERVED SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2
  IN/HR WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED AS BROADER SWATH OF MODERATE
  PRECIPITATION EVOLVES E/NEWD AND DYNAMICAL COOLING ALOFT/BACKING
  NEAR-SFC FLOW AIDS IN TRANSITION OF MIXED PTYPES TO ALL SNOW FROM NJ
  TO SERN MA.
 
  GIVEN THE SURFACE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN BY ABOUT 8-10 MB
  THROUGH 00Z AND WITH ONLY SLIGHT EWD MOVEMENT...INTENSIFICATION OF
  LOW-LEVEL WINDS /INCREASINGLY BROAD REGION OF 50-60 KT AT 850
  MB/...WILL SUPPORT OCCASIONAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE
  WIDESPREAD. ONGOING AXIS FROM DC AND CNTRL/ERN MD WILL LIKELY SHIFT
  EWD ACROSS DE...WHILE A SECONDARY ZONE LIKELY DEVELOPS FARTHER NEWD
  ACROSS LONG ISLAND INTO CSTL CT/RI/SRN MA.
 
  ..GRAMS.. 02/10/2010
 
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Blizzard Warning!!! - Fred, 2/10/2010, 7:18 am
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