Meso Discussion
Posted by JAC on 2/25/2010, 8:25 am


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0148
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0639 AM CST THU FEB 25 2010
 
  AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN/CENTRAL NY W OF HUDSON RIVER...NWRN
  NJ...NERN PA.
 
  CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
 
  VALID 251239Z - 251815Z
 
  PROBABILITY IS INCREASING FOR DEVELOPMENT OF 1-2 INCH/HOUR SNOW
  RATES BEFORE 18Z ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA...REPRESENTING INCREASE IN
  LIGHT-MDT SNOW THAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
  TRANSITIONAL ZONE WITH RAIN TO E...SNOW TO W AND MIXTURE IN BETWEEN
  WILL CONTINUE NEAR AND E OF SFC FREEZING LINE DESCRIBED BELOW.
 
  SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS CYCLONE DEEPENING AND CONSOLIDATING OVER
  ATLANTIC...E OF NC.  THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND LIFT NWD
  ALONG NEARLY COLLOCATED SFC TROUGH AND ISALLOBARIC FALL
  CORRIDOR...POSITIONED S OF CT AND E OF DE BY 18Z.  WRN LOBE OF
  RELATED LOW LEVEL WAA CONVEYOR WILL CURVE NNWWD TO NWWD INTO THIS
  REGION BY 15-18Z TIME FRAME...CONTRIBUTING TO FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER
  MOISTENING/ASCENT...N OF MID-UPPER DRY SLOT NOW MOVING OVER
  DELMARVA/NJ PER MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY.  RELATED PRECIP PLUME --
  NOW HEAVIEST AS RAIN FROM CT AND LONG ISLAND SWD -- IS FCST TO
  INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND EXPAND FROM S-N UP HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH
  REMAINDER MORNING HOURS...EXTENDING INTO ERN PORTIONS CATSKILLS AND
  SRN ADIRONDACKS BY 18Z.  WRN FRINGES OF THIS PLUME WILL BE MANIFEST
  AS SNOW INVOF SFC FREEZING LINE.  MODIFIED WAL/OKX/ALB RAOBS AND
  TIME SERIES OF RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILE ABOVE
  AREAS ALONG AND W OF SFC FREEZING LINE WILL REMAIN SUBFREEZING.  AT
  12Z THAT LINE WAS ANALYZED FROM ERN LK ONTARIO ENEWD ACROSS NRN
  ADIRONDACKS THEN SWD ALONG WRN FRINGES HUDSON VALLEY TO NWRN
  NJ...AND SHOULD REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY.  ONLY MINOR/LOCALIZED WWD
  ADJUSTMENTS ARE LIKELY DUE TO GENERALLY OFFSETTING EFFECTS OF PRECIP
  THERMAL FLUXES...WEAK WET-BULBING AMIDST HIGH RH...AND WEAK THERMAL
  ADVECTION.
 
  ..EDWARDS.. 02/25/2010
 
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Meteorologists turn up the hype with latest 'Monster Storm' - JAC, 2/25/2010, 7:03 am
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