Today's threat - Dallas / Ft Worth Area
Posted by
JAC on 3/8/2010, 2:51 pm
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0160 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0142 PM CST MON MAR 08 2010 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH AND CNTRL TX...SW OK CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 081942Z - 082115Z AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EWD ACROSS NORTH TX AND SW OK THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER CELL ELEMENTS IN THE LINE WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. WW ISSUANCE REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MCD AREA. A WELL-DEVELOPED LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR WICHITA FALLS SWD TO AROUND BRADY IS LOCATED ALONG THE EAST EDGE OF AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. THE LINE IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET JUST TO THE EAST AND IS LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF A BAND OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL LIKELY HELP MAINTAIN THE LINE EWD ACROSS THE DALLAS...FORT WORTH METROPLEX LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WSR-88D VWP FROM FORT WORTH CURRENTLY SHOWS 40 TO 45 KT OF FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC. THIS COMBINED WITH A FORWARD SPEED OF THE LINE AT 35 KT WILL RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AROUND FORT WORTH ALSO SHOW STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT WHICH COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ..BROYLES.. 03/08/2010
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In this thread:
Pacific-System could cause severe weather over TX/OK early next week -
JAC,
3/4/2010, 7:17 am- Could be a tough afternoon along MS River - JAC, 3/9/2010, 7:42 am
- Today's threat - Dallas / Ft Worth Area - JAC, 3/8/2010, 2:51 pm
- Appreciable severe potential ARKLATEX Wednesday - JAC, 3/8/2010, 2:10 pm
- GOM Juice Watch - JAC, 3/5/2010, 1:00 pm
- Wed thru Fri could be worse - JAC, 3/5/2010, 12:59 pm
- Looking at a 80-knot Jet over Dallas - JAC, 3/4/2010, 8:46 am
- So far, hot spot maybe East TX & LA - JAC, 3/4/2010, 7:23 am
- Theta-E sez it all - JAC, 3/4/2010, 7:19 am
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