Possible Severe Weather for Lower MS Valley this Weekend
Posted by JAC on 3/17/2010, 6:51 am
 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0352 AM CDT WED MAR 17 2010 VALID 201200Z - 251200Z ...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS... THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A FAIRLY GOOD LIKELIHOOD THAT A STRONG AND INTENSIFYING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WILL DIG DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/WESTERN GULF COAST REGION BY SATURDAY...BEFORE TURNING EASTWARD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD LATE THIS WEEKEND. GIVEN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER SYSTEM...MOISTURE RETURN TO A STRONGLY SHEARED WARM SECTOR IS BECOMING A BIT LESS OF A CONCERN. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MOISTENING MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT MID 50S+ F DEW POINTS PROBABLY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT...EVEN IF THE FORCING DOES NOT BECOME AS STRONG AS CURRENTLY SUGGESTED BY THE 17/00Z ECMWF. CONSIDERABLE SPREAD STILL EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES...BUT IF THIS ECMWF RUN COMES CLOSE TO VERIFYING...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL PROBABLY INCLUDE AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...MODELS INDICATE THAT A MORE PROGRESSIVE...ZONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL EVOLVE. BUT...THE SPREAD AMONG THE GUIDANCE CONCERNING EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS BECOMES QUITE LARGE. ..KERR.. 03/17/2010  EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 320 PM EDT TUE MAR 16 2010 VALID 12Z FRI MAR 19 2010 - 12Z TUE MAR 23 2010 MOST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE EXPECTED LARGE SCALE FLOW THRU THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD... FEATURING A MEAN RIDGE ALIGNED CLOSE TO THE WEST COAST OF NOAM AND A MEAN CLOSED LOW OVER OR JUST N OF HUDSON BAY ANCHORING A TROF OVER CNTRL-ERN NOAM. WITHIN THIS FLOW EXPECT AMPLIFYING ROCKIES ENERGY ON FRI TO SUPPORT A VIGOROUS CNTRL-ERN CONUS/SERN CANADA STORM THRU THE WEEKEND INTO MON.  |
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