| The 2010 hurricane season is less than 70 days away now. Last years season was fairly short, lasting only 93 days, from August 11 to November 10. Only Ida would make landfall in the U.S., and Erika in the far Antilles, passed through. Ida was unique in that she was the latest landfalling named storm in Alabama recorded history, by 10 days, landfalling on November 10, 2009. The 2010 season brings a host of new names, courtesy of 2004's hellacious season. Colin (Charley), Fiona (Frances), Igor (Ivan), and Julia (Jeanne). The continued very wet weather along the Gulf region has acted to moderate water temps in the northern Gulf, to date. Couple that with the cold fronts and consistently cold winter in the same area, and the Gulf is currently producing water temps (SSTs) that are on average, up to 2.5 degrees below normal. I have never seen water temps this far off in the cool direction, for the Gulf. Air temps and weather patterns for the forecastable future are expected to stay at normal or below. This should make for a cooler Gulf in May and June. Of course, one solid month of heat may bring the water temps back in line, though that is not what is expected. The Atlantic (central and eastern) is above average in the SST department. There is a stark line between the high SSTs and low SSTs at about 70-75 degrees longitude. What does this all mean? I think the Eastern Caribbean graveyard may be up and running for much of the season. I think the Gulf may produce early named storms, but nothing more than Cat 1, at best, due to prevailing weather patterns and screaming jets diving south in the atmosphere. The tropical Atlantic should fuel some named storms earlier than usual, but fish scenarios seem likely due to the sharp switch in SSTs and wind patterns as you get into the western Atlantic. The highs do not seem any stronger or weaker than usual, in the tropics. Lastly, I think this is going to be another season that is as hard to predict as it is define. Last season never really got started, and ended just as quick. 2009, as previously discussed, only had Ida, which was a late wimper of a tropical storm. 2008 stood out with Gustav, Ike, Omar and Paloma. 2007 had Dean, Felix, and Humberto. 2006 had silence on the hurricane front. As bad as Gustav, Ike, Dean and Felix were, there hasn't been that defining hurricane of recent. I want to say that I think Ike was the standout. I think Ike was probably as close as we have come to recreating what 1900 in Galveston must have looked and felt like, as modern history will allows us to do. However, as devastating as it was, and it was extremely devastating, it still didn't have a Charley, Ivan, Katrina, Andrew, Hugo staying power in the national conscience. I don't know why. Complacency is always the cited problem, and I think that is truer now than ever. The depressed economy has stymied coastal growth, but not halted it. The central Gulf, for instance, has plenty of new construction on the various waterfronts. Gustav and Ike also didn't have the economic impact that Rita and Katrina, and 2004 did. Given the current state of national issues in the economy, the last thing this country needs is major hurricane that makes that memorable blast through Miami, or the East Coast, or New Orleans. My end thought is, will we make it through five seasons without that storm known as "The One". I believe it to be so, and I hope so. |