Developing GOM Convection --> Severe Weather for South FL this Afternoon
Posted by JAC on 3/28/2010, 10:37 am
| ...CNTRL/SRN FL THIS AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT... WSWLY MID/UPR LVL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND SLIGHTLY BACK ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY MON AS UPSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND CONTINUES EWD. INTENSIFYING SWLY LLJ AHEAD OF THE TROUGH LIKELY IS RESPONSIBLE FOR RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS ALONG WARM FRONT OVER THE N CNTRL AND NERN GULF OR MEXICO. THE LLJ SHOULD SHIFT E ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...AND OFF THE ERN FL CST EARLY MON AS AFOREMENTIONED SFC WAVE REACHES THE SC CSTL WATERS. THE GULF TSTMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP E ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN FL LATER TODAY...WITH SFC HEATING LIKELY TO INITIATE ADDITIONAL STORMS AHEAD OF THE GULF ACTIVITY. EXTRAPOLATION OF SATELLITE AND GPS PW DATA SUGGESTS THAT FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE...WITH PW AOA 1.50 INCHES...WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE FL ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT. COUPLED WITH SFC HEATING...RESULTING DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BOOST SBCAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. WITH 50 KT DEEP WLY SHEAR...SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND/OR SEA BREEZE FRONTS MAY YIELD A FEW SUPERCELLS. TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN INCREASING MOISTURE AND LOW-LVL VEERING PROFILES...IN ADDITION TO HIGH WIND AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. STORM OUTFLOW LIKELY WILL STABILIZE PARTS OF CNTRL FL BY EVE. BUT CONTINUED LOW LVL MOISTURE INFLOW...AND STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD/ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACH OF UPR TROUGH...SUGGEST THAT ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF CNTRL AND SRN FL THROUGH 12Z MON. THIS ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO SEVERAL REGENERATIVE CLUSTERS...WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/LEWPS POSING A CONTINUING RISK FOR OVERNIGHT TORNADOES AND DMGG WIND.    |
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