Positive Tilt Shortwave for Saturday
Posted by JAC on 4/28/2010, 11:59 am
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0334 AM CDT WED APR 28 2010
 
  VALID 011200Z - 061200Z
 
  ...DISCUSSION...
 
  MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT BY EARLY DAY 4 /SATURDAY/ THE UPPER PATTERN
  WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY A BROAD DOUBLE VORTEX POSITIVE TILT UPPER
  TROUGH WITH ONE SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE GREAT
  LAKES AND ANOTHER MOVING THROUGH BASE OF TROUGH ACROSS NRN MEXICO.
  THE FRONT THAT WILL STRETCH FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE SRN
  PLAINS WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE DEEP
  LAYER WINDS. GFS...ECMWF AND MOST MREF MEMBERS EJECT A SIGNIFICANT
  IMPULSE NEWD ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET
  ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE LOWER MS...TN
  AND OH VALLEYS MAINTAINING INFLUX OF RICH GULF MOISTURE. POTENTIAL
  WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO REDEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH MIGRATORY LOW
  LEVEL JET. THERMODYNAMIC/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE WILL SUPPORT A THREAT
  OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IN THE DELINEATED RISK AREA.  
 
  BEYOND DAY 4 MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE RESULTING IN
  DECREASING PREDICTABILITY.



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Next possible severe event 4/29 to 4/30 Southern Plains - JAC, 4/26/2010, 12:42 pm
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