| seas remain "very rough" until Sun night, than "rough" & "choppy" by Mon full docx document is here: http://www.incidentnews.gov/entry/526439 Forecast Briefing PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN AT MODERATE TO STRONG LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EVOLVING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND MOVING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY DROP AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS BY TUESDAY WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW ABATING FOR ABOUT 24-36 HOURS. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH A QUICK RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW THAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT MODERATE LEVELS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. Coastal Flooding impact ...HIGH TIDES WILL LIKELY POSE A COASTAL FLOOD THREAT TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH WINDS AND INCREASING WAVE ACTION WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES IN TIDE LEVELS. TIDE LEVELS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE SOUTH FLOW PERSISTS. MSZ080-010015- /O.CON.KLIX.CF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-100503T0000Z/ HANCOCK- 1104 AM CDT FRI APR 30 2010 ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY... TIDES WILL 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ALONG THE COAST OF HANCOCK COUNTY TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO THE PERSISTENCE OF SOUTHEASTERLY OR SOUTHERLY FLOW. INUNDATION WILL BE MOST NOTICEABLE DURING THE HIGH TIDE PORTIONS OF THE DAILY TIDE CYCLE AND HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR AROUND NOON EACH DAY. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE CYCLE WILL BE AT LARGE SPRING TIDE RANGES. THESE RANGES MAY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO RECEDE AT LOW TIDES DURING EACH NIGHT. HOWEVER...STANDING WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS MAY PERSIST AT NIGHT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ALL PERSONS IN THE COASTAL AREA SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY AND SHOULD BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND. REMAIN ALERT AND KEEP LISTENING TO YOUR RADIO... TELEVISION...OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR UPDATES. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RISING WATER...AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. LAZ038-040-058-060>064-066>070-MSZ081-082-010015- /O.CON.KLIX.CF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-100503T0000Z/ TANGIPAHOA-ST. TAMMANY-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-ST. CHARLES- UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD- LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON- LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-HARRISON-JACKSON- 1104 AM CDT FRI APR 30 2010 ...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... PERSONS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL EPISODE OF COASTAL FLOODING. BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IF COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED LATER THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS...AND TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY. Forecast for the Coastal Waters from Pascagoula to the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM- 1014 AM CDT FRI APR 30 2010 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... .REST OF TODAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET. PROTECTED WATERS ROUGH. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. .TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET BUILDING TO 6 TO 9 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. PROTECTED WATERS VERY ROUGH. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. .SATURDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 KNOTS. SEAS 6 TO 9 FEET BUILDING TO 8 TO 11 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. PROTECTED WATERS ROUGH. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. .SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS 7 TO 10 FEET. PROTECTED WATERS VERY ROUGH. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. .SUNDAY...SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS 7 TO 10 FEET. PROTECTED WATERS VERY ROUGH. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. .SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. PROTECTED WATERS ROUGH. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. .MONDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. PROTECTED WATERS CHOPPY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. .MONDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. PROTECTED WATERS CHOPPY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. .TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET. PROTECTED WATERS A LIGHT CHOP. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. .TUESDAY NIGHT...WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS BECOMING NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. PROTECTED WATERS CHOPPY. COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM- 1014 AM CDT FRI APR 30 2010 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... .REST OF TODAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 KNOTS. GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET BUILDING TO 7 TO 9 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. .TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS 7 TO 10 FEET. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. .SATURDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 KNOTS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FEET BUILDING TO 10 TO 12 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. .SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS 10 TO 13 FEET SUBSIDING TO 10 TO 12 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. .SUNDAY...SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS 9 TO 12 FEET. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. .SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FEET. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. .MONDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. .MONDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. .TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET. .TUESDAY NIGHT...WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS BECOMING NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET. Hazardous Weather Outlook THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT COASTAL FLOODING... PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE CYCLE WILL HAVE LARGE SPRING TIDE RANGES TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE UNUSUALLY HIGH WATER LEVELS THAT WILL RESULT IN COASTAL FLOODING ALONG HANCOCK COUNTY COAST AND THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING OUTSIDE THE HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEE SYSTEMS AND IN OTHER COASTAL LOW LYING AREAS. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR HANCOCK COUNTY THROUGH SUNDAY. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE GULF COASTAL AREAS FROM TERREBONNE PARISH TO THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA STATE LINE...AS WELL AS THE PARISHES SURROUNDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY. MARINE HAZARDS... PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE GULF WATERS TODAY. IN ADDITION...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FEET...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL GULF WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER OVER THE TIDAL LAKES AND AN EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE IS IN EFFECT. THUNDERSTORMS... INCREASING MOISTURE...HIGHER INSTABILITY AND A FEW PASSING DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THESE DISTURBANCES WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND ORGANIZED WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MILES AN HOUR. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THUNDERSTORMS... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AGAIN SATURDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS SUNDAY AS A FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. SEVERAL STORMS WILL BE STRONG WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. DUE TO THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND MONDAY. THE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY FOCUS OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY. MARINE... INCREASED WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND HIGH SEAS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT OVER THAT TIME. THE LONG FETCH OF SOUTH WINDS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE MATURE WAVES UP TO 12 FEET SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER WATERS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY LIMITED TO THE GULF WATERS...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE TIDAL LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND. Prepared by Robert Ricks/FIC |