Kansas, Oklahoma & Arkansas Under-the-Gun
Posted by JAC on 5/10/2010, 12:46 pm


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0506
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  1037 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2010
 
  AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EXTREME ERN CO...WRN KS INTO NW OK
 
  CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
 
  VALID 101537Z - 101730Z
 
  TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE
  POSSIBILITY OF A WW...WHICH SEEMS LIKELY TO BE NEEDED AROUND 17-18Z.
 
 
  LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND RUC GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT A 90+ KT
  CYCLONIC 500 MB JET STREAK IS ALREADY IN THE PROCESS OF NOSING EAST
  OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO/THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION.
  THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER
  FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SPREADING EAST OF THE ROCKIES
  THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY
  AFTERNOON...WHICH LIKELY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
  AND MODERATELY STRONG CAPE AS SURFACE HEATING PROGRESSES.  THE
  DEVELOPING DRY LINE NEAR A DEEP SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO MIGRATE
  SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF EAST CENTRAL COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS IS
  EXPECTED TO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR STRONG DESTABILIZATION ...AND STORM
  INITIATION...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THE 17-19Z TIME FRAME.  DEEP LAYER
  SHEAR IS ALREADY MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...AND THOUGH
  SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT
  MODEST...CLOCKWISE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE/ INCREASING AMBIENT
  VERTICAL VORTICITY AND BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION WILL PROBABLY
  BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL.
 
  ..KERR.. 05/10/2010
 


ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
  WOUS40 KWNS 101615
  ARZ000-KSZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-110200-
 
  PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  1115 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2010
 
  ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
  SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
 
  THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
  DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG...POTENTIALLY LONG-TRACK
  TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
  AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
 
  THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
 
         EXTREME NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
         CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
         PARTS OF WESTERN MISSOURI
         CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
 
  ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
  TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHWARD TO PARTS OF TEXAS.
 
  ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE
  NEAR AN AREA OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
  PLAINS.  AS AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER DISTURBANCE PROGRESSES EAST OF THE
  ROCKIES TODAY...HIGH POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
  OF SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
  STRONG TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND VERY LARGE HAIL...AIDED
  BY STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR.
 
  STRONGEST STORMS MAY FIRST FORM ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN KANSAS AND
  NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONTINUING EASTWARD
  AND INCREASING IN NUMBER AND STRENGTH ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS AND
  OKLAHOMA...TOWARD THE OZARKS...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
 
  STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS POTENTIALLY
  VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO
  REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO
  RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE
  WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.
 
  ..KERR.. 05/10/2010
 









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Kansas, Oklahoma & Arkansas Under-the-Gun - JAC, 5/10/2010, 12:46 pm
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