TC01B - Not a good scenario for India
Posted by JAC on 5/17/2010, 10:27 pm
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 11.7N 86.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT TC 01B HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. A
171600Z METOP-A IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE WELL-DEFINED LLCC IN THE 171600Z ASCAT
IMAGE AS WELL AS THE RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND IS POSITIONED ON
THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE 171600Z ASCAT 25 KM IMAGE SHOWING
35-KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE LATEST
KNES DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS. THE 171800Z DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW AND DEMS INDICATE 30 KNOTS. TC 01B IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU
36. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN RE-CURVE NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD AS THE
STR RE-ORIENTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER CENTRAL INDIA AFTER TAU 48. MODEL TRACKERS
ARE LIMITED TO NOGAPS, GFS, GFDN AND WBAR BUT SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 171500Z MAY
10 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 171500). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z.//







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92B in the Bay of Bengal - JAC, 5/17/2010, 3:32 pm
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