TX Panhandle Under-the-Gun Today
Posted by JAC on 5/18/2010, 10:02 am
 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010 VALID 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN HI PLNS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HI PLNS INTO SW TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER DEEP S TX... ...SYNOPSIS... SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LWR 48. IN THE SRN STREAM...SRN GRT BASIN TROUGH SHOULD MOVE E TO THE SRN HI PLNS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS OH VLY SYSTEM FURTHER ELONGATES AND CONTINUES ENE INTO THE NRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS. AT LWR LVLS...LEE TROUGH EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH PERIOD...WITH MAIN SFC CENTER FORMING OVER SE CO TODAY AND ADVANCING SLOWLY ESE TO THE OK PANHANDLE EARLY WED. LOW LVL SSELY FLOW WILL...HOWEVER...DEVELOP ALONG THE ENTIRE ERN EXTENT OF THE RCKYS FROM NM TO MT. MEANWHILE...CONVECTIVELY-REINFORCED FRONT NOW OVER TX SHOULD REDEVELOP N/NE ACROSS THE SRN PLNS...WITH THE BOUNDARY LIKELY TO EXTEND FROM THE TX PANHANDLE SE ALONG THE RED RVR BY 12Z WED. IN THE EAST...WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE NC CST SHOULD DRIVE COMPLEX FRONTAL ZONE SLOWLY SE ACROSS MS/AL/GA AND THE CAROLINAS. ...CNTRL/SRN HI PLNS THROUGH EARLY WED... INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT...STRENGTHENING/DIFFLUENT UPR FLOW ...LOW LVL MOISTURE RETURN...AND SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL SUPPORT A SUBSTANTIAL SVR POTENTIAL OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HI PLNS TODAY/TONIGHT. STG/SVR TSTMS SHOULD FORM MORE OR LESS SIMULTANEOUSLY IN CONFLUENT...MODERATELY UPSLOPE FLOW OVER ERN CO/NE NM...AND ALONG N-S DRYLINE NEAR THE NM-TX BORDER. STEEPENING LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STG VERTICAL SHEAR/VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND SOME TORNADOES. THIS THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY TONIGHT OVER SE CO/FAR ERN NM AND MUCH OF W TX. WITH MODERATE SLY LLJ LIKELY TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED EWD PROGRESSION OF GRT BASIN UPR TROUGH...THE RELATIVELY GREATEST TORNADO THREAT A BIT LATER THIS EVE MAY EXIST OVER PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT TX S PLNS...NEAR SFC WARM FRONT/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/DRY LINE INTERSECTION. OTHERWISE...THE INCREASING LLJ SHOULD SUPPORT UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO ONE OR MORE SE-MOVING MCSS TONIGHT. WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND SUSTAINED STORMS/BOWING SEGMENTS...THESE LIKELY WILL YIELD A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SVR HAIL...DMGG WIND...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO INTO PARTS OF NW TX AND POSSIBLY WRN OK. ...S TX THROUGH MIDDAY... S TX MCS SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY ESE THROUGH LATE MORNING... SUPPORTED BY MODEST BUT VERY MOIST SELY LOW LVL FLOW BENEATH LIGHT WLY FLOW ALOFT. OTHER STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG WEAKENING W/E OUTFLOW BOUNDARY S OF CRP AND ALONG SEA/LAND BREEZE BOUNDARIES NEAR BRO. CELL MERGERS...HI PW...AND ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING MAY SUPPORT ISOLD LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS...MARGINALLY SVR HAIL...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO /REF WW 184/. |
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