SPC just bumped this up to High Risk (Major Severe Weather Outbreak)
Posted by JAC on 5/19/2010, 12:41 pm




DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  1130 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010
 
  VALID 191630Z - 201200Z
 
  ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL OK...
 
  ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA
  OVER A LARGE PART OF OK AND N TX...
 
  ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK
  AREA...FROM SW KS INTO THE LWR MS VLY...
 
  ...SIGNIFICANT SVR TSTM OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT
  FOR A LARGE PART OF OK AND ADJACENT N TX...
 
  ...SYNOPSIS...
  NE CO UPR LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY E INTO CNTRL KS BY 12Z THU AS
  ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EXTENDING SSW INTO NM SWEEPS E INTO
  CNTRL OK/N CNTRL TX.  BAND OF SEASONABLY STRONG CYCLONIC WSW FLOW ON
  S SIDE OF LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE SRN PLNS...ATOP MODERATE SSWLY
  LLJ.  MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING SE FROM TX PANHANDLE SFC
  LOW SHOULD EDGE SLOWLY NE THROUGH THE PERIOD... WITH MOVEMENT OFFSET
  BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW.  S OF THE FRONT AND E OF LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE
  OVER THE ERN PANHANDLE...LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
  NWD WITH LLJ.
 
  ...SRN PLNS/ARKLATEX THROUGH EARLY WED...
  OVERNIGHT OK MCS SHOULD FURTHER WEAKEN AS CONTINUES GENERALLY ESE
  INTO NW AR EARLY THIS AFTN.  ELEVATED STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE
  ACCOMPANIED BY HAIL...LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ATOP W/E
  OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT BY THE MCS.
 
  BY MID TO LATE AFTN...COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING...CONTINUED LOW LVL
  MOISTURE INFLOW...AND LEADING EDGE OF ASCENT WITH NM UPR TROUGH
  EXPECTED TO SUPPORT NEW SFC-BASED STORMS NEAR INTERSECTION OF
  OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH EWD-MOVING LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE OVER WRN OK.  A
  BIT LATER...SCTD DEVELOPMENT SHOULD EXTEND SWD ON THE TROUGH/DRY
  LINE INTO NW TX...AND EWD ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO CNTRL OK.
 
  THE STORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SUPERCELLS GIVEN 40-50 KT DEEP WSWLY
  SHEAR AND SBCAPE OF 2500-3000 J/KG.  THE SETUP APPEARS MOST
  FAVORABLE FOR LARGE...RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING INTENSE STORMS WITH
  LARGE HAIL.  GIVEN SIZABLE LOW LVL DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT TO
  SHEAR...ESPECIALLY NEAR REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND/OR FRONT...A
  COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES ALSO MAY OCCUR.
 
  WITH THE LLJ LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN AND VEER DUE TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES
  AND THE CONTINUED EWD MOVEMENT OF NM TROUGH...EXPECT THE OK/N TX
  STORMS TO EVOLVE INTO A LARGE MCS EARLY TONIGHT.  COUPLED WITH
  INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT HI LVL FLOW...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE ESE
  INTO AR BY EARLY WED...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DMGG WIND/HAIL
  AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.
 
  ...ARKLATEX TO CNTRL GULF CST THIS AFTN...
  SFC HEATING ALONG/S AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC FRONT EXTENDING SE FROM
  SRN PLNS LOW MAY SUPPORT SCTD DIURNAL STORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX SE TO
  THE CNTRL GULF CST TODAY.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CONDITIONAL ON
  HEATING AND LOW LVL CONVERGENCE BECOMING LOCALLY SUFFICIENT TO
  OVERCOME WEAK CIN OVER REGION.  AMPLE INSTABILITY/ PW WILL BE
  PRESENT FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND PERHAPS ISOLD SVR WIND GUSTS/HAIL.
  BUT WEAK SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION/ PERSISTENCE.
 
  ..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 05/19/2010
 

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Significant Severe Weather for OKC area this evening and thru DFW area overnight - JAC, 5/19/2010, 6:37 am
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