Possible Significant Severe-Event High-Plains Saturday
Posted by JAC on 5/25/2010, 6:09 am


SPC AC 250853
 
  DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0353 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2010
 
  VALID 281200Z - 021200Z
 
  ...SVR STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE N CNTRL HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY...
 
  MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT AN
  INTENSIFYING ZONAL BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
  AND NOSE TOWARD THE PACIFIC COAST DURING THIS PERIOD.  SPLIT FLOW
  WILL LIKELY PERSIST DOWNSTREAM ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA...WITH
  GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE MORE PROMINENT BELT BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED
  ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL STATES.  THE SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS
  AND MODEL ENSEMBLES BECOMES QUITE LARGE CONCERNING SHORT WAVE
  DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN THIS REGIME.  HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING
  THAT ONE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE CENTRAL
  PACIFIC COAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE THIS WEEK...BEFORE LIFTING
  NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
  MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.  IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT FORCING FOR UPWARD
  VERTICAL MOTION... STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR AND DESTABILIZATION
  WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT
  SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY.
 
  ..KERR.. 05/25/2010
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Possible Significant Severe-Event High-Plains Saturday - JAC, 5/25/2010, 6:09 am
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