TC Formation Alert Up
Posted by JAC on 5/27/2010, 4:38 pm




WTPN21 PHNC 271400
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 160 NM RADIUS OF 12.9N 94.5W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 271330Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 94.5W. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 94.5W,
APPROXIMATELY 205 NM SOUTH OF SALINA CRUZ, MEXICO. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING,
BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD RADIAL OUFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONE
OVER THE SYSTEM. A 270759Z AMSR-E IMAGE SHOWED A BROAD LLCC WITH
FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A 270404Z ASCAT
AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS DEPICTED A DEVELOPING LLCC WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CENTER
POSITION DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE LLCC. BASED ON THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, THE LLCC IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CONSOLIDATING OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 281400Z.//
NNNN

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90E at Red Box. Drifting Around - No Clear Guidance on Track - JAC, 5/27/2010, 8:38 am
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