Re: GFS makes landfall in Oman
Posted by CypressTX on 6/2/2010, 12:13 pm
good to see you on the board skepp !  it's breaking records, regardless of where it lands

from Weather Underground:  http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html?entrynum=1498

Tropical Cyclone Phet the 2nd strongest Arabian Sea storm on record

The record heat over southern Asia in May has helped heat up the Arabian Sea to 2°C above normal. The exceptionally warm SSTs have helped fuel a rare major hurricane in the Arabian Sea today, as Tropical Cyclone Phet underwent an impressive bout of rapid intensification this morning to become a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds. Phet is a Thai word pronounced as Pet, meaning "Diamond". Intense hurricanes are rare in the Arabian Sea, due to the basin's small size, the interference of the summer monsoon, and the frequent presence of dry air and dust from the Arabian Peninsula. Phet is now the second strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Arabian Sea, behind Category 5 Cyclone Gonu of 2007, which devastated Oman. The 2001 India Cyclone 01A and Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ARB 01 (02A) also had 125 mph winds.

Phet is over some of the warmest ocean waters on the planet, 30 - 31°C (86 - 88°F), and warm waters in excess of 26.5°C (80°F) extend to a depth of at least 50 meters (165 feet), resulting in a Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential high enough to allow Phet to attain Category 5 status. Phet is under moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is forecasting Phet to become a Category 5 storm later today. The storm is moving slowly north-northwest towards Oman, and could ingest dry air from the Arabian Peninsula on Thursday, resulting in weakening. It is uncertain at present if Phet will make landfall in Oman before recurving to the northeast and hitting Pakistan.

Phet is on track to make landfall in Pakistan between the Indus River Delta and the city of Karachi. If Phet is a major hurricane at landfall, it would be capable of driving a storm surge in excess of 4 meters into the Indus River Delta region. This area is less than 4m in elevation for a distance of 50 miles inland along a 100-mile stretch of coast. Fortunately, the low-lying regions of the Indus Delta are lightly populated near the coast, according to Wikipedia. A high death toll is possible from Phet if it hits as a major cyclone, given past history. The strongest tropical cyclone on record to hit Pakistan was Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ARB 01 (02A), which hit near Karachi on May 20, 1999, as a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds. According to Wikipedia, 02A killed 700 people did $6 million in damage (1999 USD). I've also found references to a December 15, 1965 cyclone that killed 10,000 near Karachi, Pakistan.
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North Indian Ocean, TC03A, Karachi Pakistan Under-the-Gun - JAC, 6/1/2010, 9:02 am
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