Re: And.... the #1 City on Jim's Pick List is..................
Posted by
Jake on 6/2/2010, 8:29 pm
Jack, although the science is not there to predict how strong the sub-tropical ridge will be during the height of the hurricane season, I have been able to predict how strong the ridge will be with a decent amount of confidence. I look at several factors; SST in the western/central atlantic, average position of the sub-tropical high, number of deep layer troughing near the Ohio Vally to Eastern seaboard, short wave mid latitude closed vortex max and tropical wave average latitude motion..
These factors are closely monitored from June-July. During the Atlantic warm phase, as was the case in the 20s-30s-40s, the Florida east coast and central gulf coast was frequently hit by hurricances, this reversed during the Atlantic Cool phase. A warmer than normal sea surface temperatures helps strengthen the sub-tropical ridge.
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