Re: Mid level low pressure forms over SE Texas---Tides well above normal in SW La
Posted by
CypressTX on 6/3/2010, 11:26 pm
here's the Houston/Galveston NWS discussion on it:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
900 PM CDT THU JUN 3 2010
.DISCUSSION...
CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS WELL DEFINED THIS EVENING BETWEEN HOUSTON
AND GALVESTON. RAIN BANDS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE CENTER WITH
MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ACTIVITY COULD
POSSIBLY FILL IN OVERNIGHT CLOSER TO THE CENTER...BUT UNCERTAINTY OF
THIS ACTUALLY HAPPENING REQUIRES CARRYING GOOD RAIN CHANCES FOR ALL
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS ALL NIGHT LONG. RECENT DRY SPELL ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND LACK OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL SO FAR WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS
RESULTED IN MOSTLY WELCOME RAINS FOR THE AREA...SO FAR. 42
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 PM CDT THU JUN 3 2010/
DISCUSSION...
00Z AVIATION BELOW.
AVIATION...
UPPER LOW SPIRALING OVER METRO...SPIRAL BANDS ROTATING AROUND THIS
CORE LOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. MAINLY SHOWERS...
WITH THE EMBEDDED STORM...THAT IS BEST HANDLED WITH VC`S AND ADMEND
AS NECESSARY. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THIS LOW SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH HEATING OF THE DAY INCREASING PRECIPITATIVE
COVERAGE. SPIRAL BANDS ARE MORE CERTAIN...WITH POSSIBLE HEAVY CORE
RAINS. NO WAY OF DETERMINING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW
SO WILL GO WITH VCSH/VCTS...VFR CEILINGS WITH TEMPO LOWERING TO MVFR
WITHIN CONVECTIVE BANDS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...AMENDMENTS IN THE NEAR
FUTURE WITHIN THIS VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN. 31
THERE IS A PLANNED ASOS OUTAGE AT KLBX THAT BEGAN ON JUNE 2ND. TAF
NIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED UNTIL ASOS SERVICE IS RESTORED. THE
OUTAGE MAY LAST THREE WEEKS OR MORE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT THU JUN 3 2010/
DISCUSSION...
TOOK A WHILE BUT PCPN STARTING TO FILL IN ACROSS SE TX AS THE UP-
PER LOW SPINS OVER THE AREA. AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS SO FAR TODAY
IN THE QUARTER INCH OR LESS RANGE FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A SOMER-
VILLE TO LIVINGSTON LINE. WHILE NORTH OF THIS LINE...TOTALS GOING
TO RUN A BIT HIGHER (AVERAGING 1/2"-1" WITH ISOLATED 3" AMOUNTS).
AND AS STATED EARLIER...THESE RAINS FELL WHERE THE OVERNIGHT RAIN
DID NOT. SO NOT LOOKING FOR A LOT OF FLOODING TYPE ISSUES ATTM AS
WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTN/EVENING. LOOKING AHEAD...MODELS KEEP A
DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN IN FOR US THROUGH TOMORROW (AT LEAST). THIS
UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO LINGER OVER THE AREA...AND AS PER CURRENT
RADAR/SATELLITE LOOPS IT SEEMS TO BE DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTH DURING
THE AFTN. AS SUCH HAVE KEPT CHC POPS IN THE FCST FOR TOMORROW/FRI
BUT WILL KEEP AN OPEN MIND ABOUT CONTINUING THEM THROUGH THE WEEK
END (DEPENDING ON WHAT THE LOW DOES). NAM/ECMWF PERSISTING WITH A
SLIGHTLY WETTER/COOLER FCST THAN GFS AS THEY ARE KEEPING THIS SY-
STEM IN/AROUND THE REGION. 41
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