Re: A couple points
Posted by JAC on 6/15/2010, 10:05 pm
Thank you Arborist.

I am truly honored by your comments.

So, I thought I would wait a little to see how 92L shakes out before posting on it again.

However, it seems it has quickly flared in the last hour and I thought I should post.

From IR, cloud tops are the highest they have been so far with this system.

Another very interesting point is the deep cell is firing nearly on top of the LLC.

There is a lot of talk that it is hitting a lot of shear.

In fact it is not.

If you look at the top AMSU graph below shear speed in red is just about 10 knots - well within the range to allow development.

In my opinion 92L is walking a fine line with the UL-jet to the NW.

It is staying just far enough away to allow an enhanced outflow channel to increase UL ventilation.

If it moves too fast into the jet then it will be shear apart.

Need to really wait and see what happens.

A big factor would be if the current convection is in fact a hot-tower.

If that is the case the huge updraft from it will push aside the jet and it most likely would continue to develop.

The thing to watch for is high rain rate indicating a  hot tower is firing.

TRMM also may fly by and we could get a snapshot tomorrow morning from its precip radar.











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92L Slowly Getting Its Act Together - JAC, 6/14/2010, 7:08 am
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