Re: 20% Now
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 6/17/2010, 8:10 pm
They should probably not say near 0%. They should probably say something like under 10% when they want to talk about a system and it has little chance.

Here was the SHIPS output for shear at 18Z for 92L:

TIME (HR)            0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
SHEAR (KT)        36    36    31    29    24    27    24    25    14    21    20    18    19

Next one should come in soon. If the model were correct, it is under the most shear right now, though it is not smooth sailing by any means over five days.

The actual intensity output from that run:

TIME (HR)               0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND     25    24    23    22    22    22    24    25    26    28    35    42    49
V (KT) LAND         25    24    23    22    22    22    24    25    26    25    30    37    44
V (KT) LGE mod    25    25    24    23    22    21    20    20    21    23    26    32    35

From the latest file in this directory:
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/
95
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Yellow circle up again for 92l - jack ruby, 6/17/2010, 4:56 pm
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