Re: 20% Now
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 6/17/2010, 8:10 pm
They should probably not say near 0%. They should probably say something like under 10% when they want to talk about a system and it has little chance.
Here was the SHIPS output for shear at 18Z for 92L:
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 SHEAR (KT) 36 36 31 29 24 27 24 25 14 21 20 18 19
Next one should come in soon. If the model were correct, it is under the most shear right now, though it is not smooth sailing by any means over five days.
The actual intensity output from that run:
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 22 22 22 24 25 26 28 35 42 49 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 22 22 22 24 25 26 25 30 37 44 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 22 21 20 20 21 23 26 32 35
From the latest file in this directory: ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/ |
95
In this thread:
Yellow circle up again for 92l -
jack ruby,
6/17/2010, 4:56 pm- Pressure is dropping around the Virgin Islands - JAC, 6/18/2010, 1:53 pm
- 22N 62W Convection Firing at a Triple Point - JAC, 6/18/2010, 12:39 pm
- Hmmmm - JAC, 6/18/2010, 3:04 pm
- yellow circle percentage!!! - Jake, 6/18/2010, 11:27 am
- 20% Now - CX, 6/17/2010, 7:46 pm
- Re: 20% Now - Chris in Tampa, 6/17/2010, 8:10 pm
- Re: Yellow circle up again for 92l - LawKat, 6/17/2010, 5:30 pm
- The floater is no longer updating - Chris in Tampa, 6/17/2010, 5:21 pm
- Covection firing very close to the LLC - JAC, 6/17/2010, 5:20 pm
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