93L Open Wave Evening Analysis
Posted by
Jake on 6/22/2010, 5:43 pm
The disturbance has become less organized during the afternoon. Thus the NHC has lowered formation percentage, this doesn't surprise me per my analysis last night.. The atmospheric conditions are marginal at best for the system to gather. The convective curveture seen on sat images is mostly on the northern quad of the disturbance. Upper level high as moved over and passed the mid-level circulation which is located just south of Hispaniola.
Formation outlook: The system is embedded in a deep layer southeasterly flow and this will force the the mid-level circulation inland. The interaction with said terrain will put an end to any formation of a surface circulation. However, life threatening mudslides and flooding rains will affect all of Hispaniola tonight thru tomorrow.
As to why this has not formed today, is mostly due to a weak 925-850mb vort max and a complex upper air pattern over the system. Several layers with height have different flows which restrict outflow/inflow, this tends to displace high base convection from any center that attempts to form and doesn't allow srface pressures to fall and build a central core with intense deep convection. This can't be accomplished without a strong 850mb vortex and displacement of 700-500mb vortex (No co-location in vertical structure).This is the most important machanism in a cyclones formation cycle, even when SST's are warm, deep layer moisture is plentiful and convergence/divergence is strong. In my opinion, the wave mostly flared up due to the interaction with the northern carib upper trough and a rapid slowing of the easterlies combined with tropical wave energy.
Lastly, we will continue to see a wave that flares up and down while struggling to gather in the coming days. |
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93L System Analysis -
Jake,
6/22/2010, 12:24 am Post A Reply
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