HPC Forecast Discussion
Posted by
DTB_2009 on 6/23/2010, 5:06 pm
MEANWHILE
MODELS/ENSEMBLES DEFINE AN INCREASINGLY WIDE ENVELOPE WITH A
POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO... WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BY FAR THE DEEPEST AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS OVER THE GULF AND THE 00Z/12Z CANADIAN THE QUICKEST WITH
ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. USING CLIMATOLOGY AND THE
00Z MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AS A GUIDE...THERE IS A 20-30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT IF A TROPICAL LOW/CYCLONE FORMED AND MOVED
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IN 5-6 DAYS THAT IT WOULD RECURVE
INTO THE EASTERN GULF COAST...PARTICULARLY IF THE MORE
WESTERLY/DEEPER SOLUTIONS WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH VERIFY. FOR
NOW...THIS POSSIBILITY IS CONSIDERED A LOW PROBABILITY ALTERNATIVE
SCENARIO SINCE THE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE GETTING LESS BULLISH
WITH ITS DEVELOPMENT BY THE DAY...AND IT CURRENTLY SHOWS NO
ORGANIZATION. THE 16Z TPC/HPC COORDINATED TRACK WAS SHIFTED A BIT
TO THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE BETTER-AGREED UPON RIDGING EXPECTED TO
LINGER AT 500 HPA ALONG THE GULF COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHICH
MOVES THE LOW CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF THE LARGER CAMP OF ENSEMBLE
LOW CLUSTERING.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html |
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