93L System Analysis
Posted by
Jake on 6/24/2010, 7:42 pm
The disturbance remains disorganized this evening, but pressures have been falling near the LLC just northeast of Honduras. The circulation has been moving slowly westward today and this general motion should continue. Strong high base convection has been attempting to form closer to the center over steamers spiralling on the eastside where deep layer moisture and large scale ascent is strongest. The center is attached to an elongated surface trough and enhanced shear zone. The trough has ignited several large mesoscale convection complex's mostly east of 80 where upper divergence and surface convergence is strongest.
Formation: The LLC is now getting very close to central america and this combined with a very complex upper air pattern should hold formation in check. A strong upper high is centered over Honduras and the eastern periphery is causing W-NW shear over the circulation. Lastly, the trough is attached to large shear axis which extends through the carib and into atlantic for several hundred miles (This draws energy from rapping to the systems).
Conclusion: The upper pattern is complex and suffocating. This will keep the circulation from being able to rap convection around the center to expand and strengthen surface inflow. Although late this evening an early start to the diurnal pulse has increased convection east of the circulation the atmosphere is marginal for this to begin a steady increase.
Note: Do not be mislead by low shear in the gulf, the conditions are unfavorable. A large upper low is not conducive for tropical cyclone formation. This feature combined with the upper high over central america is producing 30kts of westerly shear across the northern carib and southern gulf.
My call remains the same, no tropical cyclone formation. |
193
In this thread:
93L System Analysis - Jake, 6/24/2010, 7:42 pm Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.