TD-1 System Analysis
Posted by
Jake on 6/25/2010, 11:52 pm
There's no question that the disturbance in the western carib has finally found it's way under a more conducive environment for formation than this last night (Finally).
However, the depression's center is very close to the northern coast of Hunduras. This should help to maintain a slow strengthening system. In addition, there are several other factors that will slow development, some dry air has mixed it's way around the core and the stronger upper high is slowly moving west this places the TD's center / CDO under the eastern periphery which inturn is causing some 10-15kt NE-E shear. This has displaced the CDO from the LLC.
In Conclusion, the TD should slowly gather tonight as the aforementioned conditions should minimize any major strengthening till landfall in Belize.. Soon to be Alex should continue on a due North of West track till landfall. Thereafter, a weakened Alex should emerge into the BOC as a TD or remnant low and continue WNW Iinto central mex.
Note: There's uncertainty in the intensity forecast in the long range. If Alex takes a more southern route it will have better chance to strengthen in the BOC than if it moves more NW where high shear values appear to be in line. |
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TD-1 System Analysis - Jake, 6/25/2010, 11:52 pm
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