| The cyclone is now fully embedded within a well established upper level high. The high has been displaced from the center of the storm since it's inception, this has and will continue a 10-12kt NE-E shear which combined with restricted inflow due to the proximity to the Yucatan and Hunduras. Alex should continue to strengthen some before landfall this evening along the central coast of Belize. Sat and microwave images shows the beginings of an eyewall on the SE quad of the center with some slight increase inforward speed this should keep the storm from reaching hurricane intensity by landfall. He needed more time with these upper air parameters. This was the saving grace, as the current images are showing that Alex is about to ramp up some this afternoon. Got to run, will give a more thorough update this evening. Did do a late post last night, if you would like my thoughts in the long range, see below. _________________________________________________________ Posted by Jake on 6/25/2010, 11:52 pm There's no question that the disturbance in the western carib has finally found it's way under a more conducive environment for formation than this last night (Finally). However, the depression's center is very close to the northern coast of Hunduras. This should help to maintain a slow strengthening system. In addition, there are several other factors that will slow development, some dry air has mixed it's way around the core and the stronger upper high is slowly moving west this places the TD's center / CDO under the eastern periphery which inturn is causing some 10-15kt NE-E shear. This has displaced the CDO from the LLC. In Conclusion, the TD should slowly gather tonight as the aforementioned conditions should minimize any major strengthening till landfall in Belize.. Soon to be Alex should continue on a due North of West track till landfall. Thereafter, a weakened Alex should emerge into the BOC as a TD or remnant low and continue WNW Iinto central mex. Note: There's uncertainty in the intensity forecast in the long range. If Alex takes a more southern route it will have better chance to strengthen in the BOC than if it moves more NW where high shear values appear to be in line. |