Re: I am interested to see what the EURO run shows, and the runs at 2, I think they all shift to
Posted by
Beachlover on 6/27/2010, 1:24 am
Will indeed be interesting to see the runs at 2, especially given the NHC discussion at 10 (didn't anyone read this, or is everyone pooh-poohing their opinion?).
MOST OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PERSISTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
AND THESE MODELS TAKE ALEX ON A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OVER
THE SOUTHERN GULF AND INTO MEXICO IN 3 OR 4 DAYS. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE GFDL AND GFS TAKE ALEX FARTHER NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SPURIOUS
VORTICITY MAXIMA IN BOTH MODELS THAT ERODE THE RIDGE NORTH OF ALEX.
GIVEN THEIR LACK OF CONTINUITY...THE GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS ARE
CONSIDERED OUTLIERS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ONLY A
LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE DUE TO THE INITIAL
POSITION AND MOTION...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS EXCLUDING THE GFDL AND GFS.
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In this thread:
I am interested to see what the EURO run shows, and the runs at 2, I think they all shift to the sou -
stormlover,
6/27/2010, 12:42 am- Re: I am interested to see what the EURO run shows, and the runs at 2, I think they all shift to the - canetrakker, 6/27/2010, 10:14 am
- Re: I am interested to see what the EURO run shows, and the runs at 2, I think they all shift to the - hillsboroughweather, 6/27/2010, 12:57 am
- Re: I am interested to see what the EURO run shows, and the runs at 2, I think they all shift to the - jack ruby, 6/27/2010, 12:51 am
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