Re: "Below average confidence in forecast track"
Posted by jack ruby on 6/27/2010, 4:51 pm
Would seem to be the key words. For now the track is adjusted somewhat further north---but with the Euro still holding west, the NHC is reluctant to move the track too far north as yet. But NHC does express skepticism with the Euro intensity forecast---preferring to go with a stronger storm in the Gulf than the Euro. A pertinent excerpt from the Discussion.

SINCE THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD...THIS TRACK
FORECAST IS THOUGHT TO BE OF BELOW-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

WHILE THERE IS A LARGE DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF ALEX...THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE-SCALE
ENVIRONMENT. THESE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER-RIDGE AXIS SITTING VERY
NEAR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...IN A
FAVORABLE POSITION FOR INTENSIFICATION. COMBINED WITH THE WARM
WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY
AFTER ALEX MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. GIVEN THE
OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...IT IS SURPRISING THAT THE
GFDL/HWRF DO NOT SHOW MORE INTENSIFICATION...LEAVING THE SYSTEM AS
A TROPICAL STORM FOR MANY DAYS. THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE AND THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL
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4 PM Discussion - CypressTX, 6/27/2010, 4:44 pm
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