Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) - Track and Land Interaction Discussion
Posted by JAC on 6/28/2010, 5:01 am
Like I have been saying, it is nearly impossible to forecast what Midwest shortwaves and cut-off lows will be doing more than 2 to 3 days out.

Air has been extremely unstable here in the Midwest.

Afternoon heating squall lines can form and drive up a short wave that was unanticipated just 24 hrs ago.

Well, it looks like one came through last night and air behind will definitely be stabilizing.

SREF forecast is for a 1024mb High pressure dome to build over the Midwest which appears to push Alex to its NW and at this point make landfall around the Tex-Mex border.

http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/frames.php?run=2010062721


At this point CMC, GFDL,  confirms.
Euro slightly south of the border.
GFS takes landfall just west of Houston.
BAM suite a bit west of GFS.
HWRF a bit west of that.

Of course this is not the final landfall forecast, but with the now Midwest High a sure thing, I think track is starting to gel.

I don't want to make this post too long, so I'll look at land-interaction forecasts in a couple extra posts under this thread later today.























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Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) - Track and Land Interaction Discussion - JAC, 6/28/2010, 5:01 am
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