Re: Core Heating Up & Tightening Up
Posted by
Jake on 6/28/2010, 12:04 pm
The center is now offshore and convection has increased. However, N-NW shear appears to be impeding a more robust expansion of the core, even as high base convection is firing. Outflow on the NW quad is poor, this is likely due to an upper low north of the storm. Morerover, the massive upper high which sat over Alex over the weekend is now over Mexico and is a contibutor to the shear. WV images indicate some mid-upper level dry air over Mexico could also be pulled in this shear flow.
With this said, convection is not all that impressive at this time. Thus enough factors favor rather slow strengtheing today, as center will struggle to intensify. Will have keep an eye on this, to see whether this trend continues.
Note: In my years studying TC, such a large upper high never sits for days and days for a TC. Maybe this is why the dynamical models show modest strengthening.
Thoughts!! |
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