Jake on Alex
Posted by
Jake on 6/29/2010, 9:12 pm
Alex has been slowly getting better organized during the afternoon and evening. The core is becoming more symmetrical, as spiral bands are inreasing in intensify around the center. Latest Microwave / WV imagery indicate that Alex is very close to becoming a hurricane. Although strengthening should continue till landfall, the storm has had trouble mixing out the very dry mid level layer air that continues to be entrained. This puzzling since the stream of deep layer moisture is extremely deep and abundant, which extends well into the pacific, caribbean and atlantic. The only atmospheric issue besides the dry air over Mexico is a complex flow in the NW quad. It appears that this side is restricted by a 200-400mb Northerly shear zone which has not allowed the cirrus canopy to expand westward and moisten the low-mid levels.
In conclusion: Alex should become the first hurricane of the season, but intensity will likely not be as much as first though. As a relentless influx of dry air, restricted NW quad proximity to land and large radius should keep Alex from reaching 100mph. Although strong, this had the looks a few days ago of becoming extremely strong with the atmosphere it was under over the weekend. Thankfully, this kind of environment doesn't for days on end. Track is now straight forward, the mid-level ridge has taken control of the steering flow and Alex should make landfall near of just north of Lapesca Mex. |
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Jake on Alex - Jake, 6/29/2010, 9:12 pm Post A Reply
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