The NHC has been adjusting the best track a lot today, including the past hour.
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/invest_al952010.invest
The last four lines at the moment look like this:
AL, 95, 2010070506, , BEST, 0, 281N, 908W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 60, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 95, 2010070512, , BEST, 0, 284N, 909W, 30, 1009, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 70, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 95, 2010070518, , BEST, 0, 287N, 910W, 35, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 25, 0, 0, 1012, 70, 25, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 95, 2010070600, , BEST, 0, 292N, 911W, 30, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 80, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Despite the "TD" which could change and is sometimes wrong anyways, they call 95L a disturbance (DB) with 35 knot winds so they don't have to call it a TS at that position. (And it would look bad to go ahead and jump to that immediately, although I'm shocked they actually put 35 knots in there already. I expected this move in a day or two.) It was obviously a low at 18Z. (Otherwise the 5:10PM EDT code red was off in more ways than just being oddly timed.)
Review is already underway, lol. |