Re: 20% of nothing ......gets you 80% of something???
Posted by LawKat on 7/7/2010, 11:00 pm
The circles and the percentages are causing you all to miss the forest for the trees.

Go back in time a few years ago and look at this current spin.  Analyze against a radar loop of Arlene 2005 or Allison 1995.

Those storms were very weak looking and yet they held tropical storm force winds, and pressures.

Kyle, Chris (no offense Chris), Joyce.  Just to name a few more.

This wave with its possible LLC looks no worse or better than those guys.

And obviously the percentage for those guys must have been 100% because they all got names.

So let's not over-analyze the system the NHC uses.  I think of it as a more user-friendly explanation to the geenral public about the NHC's line of thinking on a system at any given time.

As for roller coaster switches in percentages.  Again, Arlene in 2005.  Early forecast had a hurricane hitting the northern Gulf coast in 2 days from the Yucatan.  It nearly dissolved, reformed 160 miles north, and made landfall the very next day.

We all know that the swings in small or tightly wound or even big systems can be on a dime.  Peter from a few years ago, wound up one afternoon, and was dead by noon the next day.  Marco's winds only extended 11.5 miles from the center, and for less than 18 hours.

Let's just not get caught up.  

I personally think this system has an excellent chance of forming into a TD and probably a TS.  290 miles is a long way.

Remember, just a week ago, lots of people had Alex dead on the Yucatan, and within 100 miles of the coast, he went to Cat 2 from 75 mph Cat 1.
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20% of nothing ......gets you 80% of something??? - Doorman, 7/7/2010, 8:49 pm
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